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March 30, 2005

Autism and Google versus Math, or A Little Research Is A Dangerous Thing

Tyler Cowen at the economist blog Marginal Revolution complains that the rise of autism diagnoses in America from 1 in 2500 to 1 in 166 seems like an urban legend: he can't find any reputable citations for the "1 in 166" figure on Google.

Tyler, that's probably because you didn't think to perform the secret decoder trick where you rewrite the 1/166 as 6/1000. Looking for "autism 6 1000" gets you this citation, among others.

There's some kind of point here about unspoken knowledge: when I, with an excessive math background, see "1 in 166", I immediately recognize that as a rewriting of "6 in 1000". But Tyler didn't, despite his smarts and despite being an economist (which is plenty mathematical). So what in my past let me clue in to the secret mathematical origin of the 1-in-166 figure?

The other point is the one we all know: never confuse "what I find on Google" with "everything there is to learn". Not this decade, anyway.

Posted by danielstarr at March 30, 2005 01:39 PM

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